Market Report>> MARKET REPORTS 2007 >> MARKET REPORTS 2006Winter bluesThe list of macro indicators which disappointed last week was long: IFO, consumer confidence in the US, home sales, Chinese PMI, US Manufacturing ISM… Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Demographics and housesThere are still numerous macro indicators out there that suggest that the recovery process of the US economy still has some way to go. Let's take for instance the recent housing report. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Worlds apartIt seems recovery in Europe has already stagnated having barely started. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The United States of Europe?All the countries which joined the European Monetary Union knew they forfeited one important feature of a sovereign nation: a sovereign currency and authority over its exchange rate policy. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management As goes January…Investors and other humans alike don’t like uncertainty. That is why rules of thumb are popular.Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Digging a holeGovernments have intervened on a massive scale to prevent the world economy falling into Great Depression 2. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Clipping the wings of the phoenixBarely a year ago, the worldwide financial sector looked close to collapse. Those banks that are still alive thanks to government aid cannot return to business as usual and should slim down. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management An unbalanced re-balancingIt cannot be emphasized enough: if we want to avoid a new financial or economic crisis a couple of years down the line, the world economy should become more balanced. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The imperial dollarA temporary coalition of countries – the likes of which include Russia, China, Japan, France and some Middle East countries – have been discussing no longer using the US dollar for oil trading. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management G20 or German Government?What will turn out to be the most important contributor to a more balanced world economy? The results of the Pittsburgh G20 summit or the results of last weekend’s German Federal elections? Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management It’s alive, but is it kicking?The world economy is doing better than many had feared up to a couple of months ago. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Price uncertainty continuesInflation or deflation? That is one of the million dollar questions these days. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Green shoots in desperate need of some water…Despite numerous positive economic surprises in the past couple of weeks, the market’s response has been muted. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management See you at the crossroadsMarkets seem to have stalled recently after a remarkable uptrend that started in March. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Don’t get too excited about the labour marketSince the start of the recession, the US economy has lost about 5.7 million jobs, a pace that is unprecedented in the post World War II era. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Is the ECB really behind the curve?This Thursday, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management X-FlationIf you look at the evolution of the stock market in the past couple of days, the least we can say is that we’re not there yet. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Rally time?A tsunami of government interventions, quantitative easing and financial engineering has finally convinced investors to come back to the markets. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management From ‘yes we can’ to ‘no we can’t’ and backWhat a week it has been on the equity markets. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management House-warming measuresAn in-depth interview with a chairman of the Federal Reserve is a rare event. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Dust yourself off and try againAlthough financial stress has not disappeared entirely, we feel that the devastating impact of the financial crisis on the real economy has taken over the role of market guide. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Start the stress testAnother day, another rescue attempt to solve the current financial instability. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Great expectationsThe elevated pace at which jobs are being cut in this economic downturn is unprecedented. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management No optimists in DavosIt appears that no optimist could be found in Davos. That has never been a very strong leading indicator, however. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management If only it was that easyThe week didn’t get off to a good start as companies around the globe reported more job-slashing (at an elevated pace) to adjust their output to faltering global demand. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The twilight (euro) zoneThe last couple of weeks, the euro zone bloc has taken quite a beating. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Give me hope, JobamaBusiness confidence in the States has tumbled to a level not seen since the early eighties. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management How low can it go?Although most investors are well aware of the ‘challenges’ the US (and global) economy is currently facing, they must have been surprised by the magnitude of the plunge of last week’s economic indicators. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Hitting the brakesNorbert Ore, the chairman of the ISM*, seems to have thrown in the towel. Based on the latest manufacturing confidence reading, he admits that they may have been too optimistic on the near term outlook for the US economy. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Economic indicators are free fallingIt can be no surprise that economic indicators are coming in with dreadful news. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Recession or depression?Are we heading for a recession or are we facing a depression? That is truly a multi billion dollar question. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Time after timeWith small baby steps, conditions in the money markets are returning to normal again. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Quality will prevailAfter a couple of ultra-distressed days, with the VIX* index reaching an intraday record high of 81.2, is the stress fading out of the financial system? Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Giant steps for mankindAt last, the bulk of decisive measures taken by Central Banks across the globe is starting to pay off. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management TransformersIt seems financial markets are stuck in a kind of twilight zone, not knowing the difference between reality and fiction. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Opening Pandora's boxWe are simply stunned by the speed at which wealth is being destroyed. In just a couple of days, the third and fourth biggest US investment banks have disappeared (the fifth disappeared six months ago). Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Frannie the BearIn mid-March the Federal Reserve saved Bear Stearns from a certain death. Markets reacted relieved and analysts and pundits called the bottom in the equity markets. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Pessimism on Europe is overdone, but it will push the ECB..."The IFO came in lower than expected." It puzzles us what the analysts had expected: a rebound now that most indicators and markets are pointing to something below our feet? Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The statistical fogFog is not only a problem at the Olympic sites in China. The latest statistical data in the US seem to suffer from the same fog problem as well, but it might also be outright pollution. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Every trend has a phase of an important counter-trendAs the dollar started to slide from 2002 until now, it had a full year of counter-trend in 2005. The dollar strengthened from over 1.35 against the euro, to below 1.17. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Midsummer reflectionThe summer of 2008 is becoming one of the hottest ever… on the financial markets. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management ECB worsens situations for the banksThe ECB is talking a very hawkish language lately, and threatens to hike interest rates at the start of July. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Bernanke strikes backWho cares that the US consumer confidence expectations component for the next 6 months touched a level equal to 1974? Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Torn between inflation and an ongoing credit crisisThe ECB must have imagined a more pleasant tenth anniversary.
Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management It's heating up againIf one thing is clear, it must be that the situation is unclear for the banks. The Swiss Bank UBS has taken US$ 38bn of write downs and losses, and it is still not sure if this will be enough. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Inflate the fearsIn times when many European consumers are crossing the Atlantic to go shopping, hoping to benefit from the low dollar, US investors seem to be going in the opposite direction to diversify their investment portfolios. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Bob Doll's investment commentaryLast week's financial news included an announcement that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 25 basis points and hinted that it might pause in its rate-cutting campaign. Also in the headlines was news that oil prices had pulled back and the U.S. economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, as well as the April payrolls report showing that jobs declined by 20,000 (a better-than-expected figure). I did it my way…In recent weeks, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been struggling to organize his defence, as criticism about his monetary policy decisions have been surfacing. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The worst quarter in five years has endedIf there is some comfort to be found in statistics, it is probably that the worst quarter is almost never followed by an even worse quarter, but often by a better, even a positive one. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Who's panicking the most: the Fed or equity investors?Markets are in a downdraft, or to be more precise: financial stocks are in a downdraft. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management What could be the next trigger?March has started on a low key.
Markets have lost ground, and retreated on the soft rally path they started in February. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management We're not out of the woods yet, we even don't know which way the exit is!Not a week has gone by without negative news coming from the banking sector. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The Year of RecessionThe Western world is slowly but surely sliding into the recession that began in 2000, when the stock markets burst. Opinion by David Karsbøl, Head of Market Strategy, Saxo Bank Can the world economy remain afloat?The gap between the performance of financials versus all the rest (non-financials) tells a million words. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management The Fed at your serviceWho would have expected a couple of weeks ago that just one month into 2008, the Fed would have cut the short term interest rates by a whopping 125 bps? Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management Casino Général?The financial sector has some explaining to do in the next couple of months. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management ’Cause I’m free, free-fallingMarket sentiment is currently freefalling in most major investment regions. Macro commentary by Petercam Asset Management | Search:
|
Media | RSS | Terms and Conditions | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Imprint